Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
